The Portland Cement Association (PCA) Market Intelligence Group released its Winter Northeast Regional Forecast predicting cement consumption to see a mild decline in the near term before starting to grow in 2022 and beyond.
The Northeast has been hit hard by COVID-19, leading to cement consumption declining by a projected 0.6% in 2020 and PCA projects further decline in 2021 by nearly 1%. The Middle Atlantic was down nearly 4% in 2020, however the East North Central and New England were up 0.7% and 2.8%, respectively. Following this, PCA Market Intelligence expects cement consumption in the Northeast will decline by 0.9% in 2021. The declines are evenly spread over the three Census Divisions with the Middle Atlantic down 1%, East North Central down 0.8%, and New England down 0.8%.
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The residential market served as the primary growth engine of 2020 in the Northeast. This is expected to fall off slightly in 2021 (-0.9%) but again continue its growth in 2022 and throughout the forecast horizon. Look for the commercial market to decline further in 2021 and 2022 as there have been many business closures and other economic scarring due to COVID-19 but will begin to recover in 2023 and grow through 2025. In the Middle Atlantic, public cement consumption is projected to decline 0.4% in 2021 on top of a 1.9% decline in 2020. The Northeast is generally expected to lag behind national trends in public cement consumption given state fiscal conditions and the characteristics of the region.
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