ARA Updates North American Equipment, Event Economic Forecasts

The latest research from the American Rental Association (ARA) is showing a bright future for the U.S. construction and industrial equipment (CIE) market, as well as the general tool rental industry.

The association’s latest forecast expects the wider American CIE industry and tool rental industry to increase by 3.6% through this year, rising to a total value of $83.5 billion. This represents a nearly full percentage point increase from last quarter’s projection, which forecasted a 2.8% jump this year, moving to a total of $82.9 billion.

“Rental revenue continued to grow, particularly in areas where the large and megaproject work is,” says Tom Doyle, the ARA’s vice president of program development. “The trend toward more rental versus ownership also continues. Rental tailwinds include project uncertainty, market volatility, sustainability, financial flexibility for the rental user and the high cost of owning. Rental companies are focused and delivering better solutions.”

The industry’s growth isn’t expected to stop there, the association says, with current projections looking even rosier for 2027 and 2028. During the next two years, the market currently projects to see increases of 3.8% and 4.4%, respectively.

S&P Global managing director Scott Hazelton attributed the market’s growth to anticipated shedding of outside market softeners and “uncertainty around so many things — geopolitics, energy prices, tariffs and a lot of things that are holding back investment decisions that, as we get more clarity, will get better and better.”

“This year (general tool) is a little bit weak but overall, in the outer years, it is strong,” he says. “Part of that is increased adoption, part of that is an increased housing outlook and part of that is the manufacturing sector that gets a little more strength as we get past some of these tariff-inflicted pains of last year.”

The association adds that Canada’s CIE and general tool rental segments are expected to grow 5% this year to a total of $6.3 billion.

Forecasting the event rental market

The event rental market saw the highest percentage jump in its new ARA forecast, with the market now expected to grow 8% this year, to a total of $6.1 billion. That number represents a 2.2%, $200 million increase over the previous forecast. The Canadian event rental revenue is also expected to grow 6.3% this year, totaling $280 million.

Beyond that, the U.S. event rental industry is expected to slightly soften in 2027, dropping to 5.5% growth, and dropping to 4.6% growth in 2028. The Canadian market is also projected to slightly droop, moving to 7.2% growth in 2027 and 5.6% growth in 2028.

“The updated forecast points to a solid year ahead for the U.S. event rental industry, with growth around 8 percent in 2026 before moderating to the mid-5 percent range in 2027,” says Bryan Bolt, the ARA’s senior director of tenting solutions. “While overall momentum remains positive, the easing reflects broader economic headwinds, including slower GDP growth, elevated inflation and higher interest rate conditions.”