FMI Market Forecast

The outlook for the general economy is improving, but that doesn’t mean good news for construction yet, reports FMI’s Construction Outlook, a quarterly, construction-market forecast and supplement to the U.S. Markets Construction Overview (something FMI has produced since 1985). Total construction in 2009 and 2010 will be down 14 percent and 5 percent, respectively. This quarter’s outlook takes a more in-depth look at the trends and drivers affecting residential, nonresidential buildings and nonbuilding structures construction.

Report Highlights Include:

1. Residential construction will decline 25 percent in 2009 and will recover in 2010.
2. Nonresidential construction will decline 13 percent in 2009 and 16 percent in 2010.
3. Nonbuilding construction will be the only positive contributor, increasing 5 percent per year in 2009 and 2010.
4. Project cancellations are five times the normal rate and are currently at 10 percent of backlog (doubled from 3Q08).
5. Total residential construction will be $268.5 billion in 2009, down from its 2006 high of $619.8 billion.
6. 2009 will be the worst year for housing starts since records began being kept in 1959.
7. Power construction is expected to remain positive for the next five years, attaining new highs each year, reaching $122.1 billion in 2013.